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LSU’s Chances Against Alabama Are Slim

Derrius Guice

Unfortunately, Alabama Will Dominate the LSU Tigers Again

Hey Fightin Tigers

Let’s be clear: I don’t think LSU has a shot at beating Alabama. The Tide are a great football team and while LSU has progressed since the Troy disaster, they are still a middling SEC program.

“That Alabama team of 1930 is a typical machine, powerful, big, tough, fast, aggressive, well-schooled in fundamentals, and the best blocking team for this early in the season that I have ever seen.”

– Everett Strupper of the Atlanta Journal, 1930

Strupper might as well be a present-day college football writer. His words could have been written for Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide dynasty. Instead, they were written 2 years before the Southeastern Conference was born.

LSU Win BarThe good news: The Tiger defense has been very good against Alabama; in fact, LSU has given up the least amount of points in SEC play to the Tide, going back to 2011 (20.9 ppg). LSU recruits and develops their defense to beat Alabama; that said, LSU is riding a six-game losing streak.

The Bad News, Pt. 1: LSU’s made their name for years on the back of their run game. But against Alabama, all-time running backs Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice have been feeble.

Key Stat: In his 3 years at LSU, Leonard Fournette ran for 79, 31, and 35 yards against Alabama (2.5 ypc). He was the leading rusher each game.

Derrius Guice saw little action in the 2016 game (2 carries, 8 yards) but Coach Ed Orgeron will put the onus on him to keep the Tigers in the game.

The Bad News, Pt. 2: Since Zach Mettenberger left for the NFL, quarterback play against Bama has been atrocious.

In 3 years, LSU QBs Anthony Jennings, Brandon Harris, and Danny Etling have combined to go 25 of 69 (36%) for 296 yards and 3 INTs in 3 losses to the Tide. That won’t beat an FCS team, much less the best college football team in a generation.

So with no running game and no passing game, it’s a miracle that LSU has been in 2 of the last 3 Alabama games. And in 2017, LSU will need everything to go right to even have a remote chance: win the turnover battle, score on special teams, and frustrate the Alabama quarterbacks.

And even then, it probably won’t be enough. Nick Saban has a voodoo spell over the entire SEC but saves his best magic for LSU. He forces the Tigers to play tight, rushed, and panicked.

Give me Alabama 31, LSU 14. LSU covers but is never in the game. It’s the first time in 18 years I’ve believed there isn’t a chance for LSU to win a game.

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